The eleventh principle: the gap between the coalition you have assembled and the coalition the objective requires is the most accurate predictor of whether the objective will be achieved.
The Eleventh Principle
Every institutional objective has a coalition requirement: a minimum set of actors whose active support, passive acquiescence, or neutralised opposition is necessary for the objective to be achieved. This requirement can be mapped in advance — through the analysis of which actors have the authority, the resources, the relationships, and the blocking capacity that the objective depends on or must navigate. The map produces the coalition the objective requires. The operator who has assembled the coalition the objective requires can proceed. The operator who has assembled something less is operating with a known deficiency.
The gap between the coalition assembled and the coalition required is the most accurate predictor of whether the objective will be achieved, because it identifies precisely which actors whose cooperation is necessary have not been secured. The gap does not guarantee failure — the unassembled actors might support the objective despite the absence of active engagement, or their resistance might be less consequential than the analysis predicted. But the gap is the risk that the operator has accepted and should have quantified before proceeding.
Building the Right Coalition
Building the coalition the objective requires — rather than the coalition that is easy to build — requires resisting the natural tendency to recruit the actors who are most supportive and most available rather than the actors who are most necessary. The most supportive actors are often not the most necessary ones. The actors who are most necessary are often not the easiest to recruit — their support is valuable precisely because it is not automatically available, and securing it requires the investment that building the coalition requires.
The coalition that is easy to build is a comfort, not a coalition. It produces the appearance of support without the substance of the specific actors and capabilities that the objective requires. The operator who has assembled a large coalition of supportive but unnecessary actors, and who is congratulating themselves on broad support, may have no answer when the specific necessary actors whose support was not secured exercise their blocking capacity.
The eleventh doctrine: map the coalition you need before you build the coalition you have. The gap between them is your risk exposure. Know it. Address it. Do not discover it when the blocking move arrives.
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