The Optimization Trap

We are obsessed with "Optimization." We strip-mine our systems to remove every ounce of waste. We want Just-In-Time inventory. We want lean staffing. We want maximum capital efficiency.

In a stable, predictable world (like a laboratory or Switzerland), optimization is profitable.

But in the real world—which is chaotic, volatile, and prone to shocks—optimization is fragility.

The Race Car vs. The Rally Car

• A Formula 1 car is perfectly optimized. It is the fastest machine on earth if the track is flat, dry, and perfect. But if you put a speed bump on the track, the F1 car explodes.

• A Rally Car is heavy. It has "unnecessary" suspension travel. It has "redundant" weight. It is not optimized for speed; it is optimized for survival.

When we "optimize" a business or a supply chain, we are turning it into a Formula 1 car. We are removing the Slack.

Slack is Not Waste Accountants view redundancy as "waste." Systems Operators view redundancy as "shock absorption."

• Inventory sitting in a warehouse looks like "dead capital" on a balance sheet. Until the supply chain breaks. Then it looks like "survival."

• Staff sitting idle looks like "inefficiency." Until the crisis hits. Then it looks like "surge capacity."

The Efficiency Paradox The more efficient a system becomes, the less resilient it is to change. An optimized system relies on a specific set of conditions. When those conditions change (a pandemic, a war, a power outage), the optimized system fails catastrophically.

The Doctrine: If you are building for a high-friction environment (Africa, Logistics, Security), do not optimize for the "Best Case Scenario." Build Buffers. Build Redundancy.

Leave some money on the table today so you are still sitting at the table tomorrow.